student projects

The accuracy of machine learning methods often drops when they are trained on one domain and deployed on another. This is a finding which has been observed over and over empirically. However, it is less clear which actions can be undertaken to mitigate this failure, if any. One intuitive approach, distributionally robust optimization (DRO), aims to find a model which performs well on all test datasets “close” to the training data in some probability distance. However, this approach results in overly pessimistic models which are robust against “unrealistic” distribution shifts. Instead, a number of methods have been proposed which aim to identify and exclusively use stable (“causal”) relationships in the data. Corresponding theory states that such methods are guaranteed to perform better than standard empirical risk minimization (ERM) under worst-case distribution shifts. When put to the test empirically, these findings do not seem to hold up well: on real-world datasets, causality- (or invariance-) based generalization methods are very often outperformed by ERM, and seem to generalize worse both in- and out-of-distribution (OOD) [Nastl & Hardt, 2024, Salaudeen et al., 2025]. This seems consistent with the “accuracy-on-the-line” hypothesis, which postulates that the ranking of models is often preserved across distributions. In recent work, it has been argued that this mismatch between theoretical and empirical findings is an “artifact” of misspecified OOD datasets, which do not contain sufficiently adversarial shifts.

The goal is to resolve the mismatch between theoretical and empirical findings in multiple ways:

• by verifying whether invariance-based OOD methods rank better if the distribution shift is constructed to be worst-case;
• by constructing benchmarks with varying strength and complexity of the distribution shift which could help evaluate a “spectrum” of OOD generalization of models;
• by providing a theoretical justification of recent empirical findings through analysis of the mismatch between benchmarks and assumptions.

Goals of the project:

• Create novel evaluation schemes for OOD machine learning methods;
• Construct novel benchmarks which more accurately measure OOD generalization;
• Test a large variety of large-scale models via the novel schemes and benchmarks.

Key Skills & Qualifications:

• Strong background in machine learning, familiarity with reading and understanding research papers.
• Solid Python and PyTorch skills, plus basic experience running experiments on GPUs.
• Background in statistics, basic machine learning theory, training and evaluation of machine learning models.
• Interest in out-of-distribution generalization, design of safe and robust models, and causality